ABSTRACT
Introduction: Ischemic cardiopathy es the main cause of death in Cuba, where it is planned to reduce the mortality due to this cause in a 20 percent. It turns necessary to identify its current and future behaviour in order to set the bases for the promotion of health. Obejctives: To estimate the future scene (until 2002) for the behavior of acute myocardial infarction in Guantanamo. Method: The outlook of the problem in the province is established (indicators of morbility, mortality and lethality which are afterwards fundamented on the criterion of experts and through participative techniques clue variables and social actors involved in the problem are reflected on. Strategic aims are establshed, as welll as the position of social actors in the view of these and the correlation of strengths. Possible hypothenses are estimated and on their bases it is possible to generate future scenes and the possibility of occurrence, and to achieve this, structural analysis (MICMAC) and positioning matrix (MACTOR method) are used. Results: mediacl personnel motivation for the prevention and control of ischemic cardiopathy, sanitary education of population and the control of cardiovascular risk factors are the determinat variables of the problem. It is determined that Public Health Ministry, Popular Power, and population are the most important social actors to promote health, as well as the 4 more probable future scenes and the actiones to empower its occurrence